
The paradox random results and longterm results
{}Posted in2023/2/26 9:06:11  8Browse

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forexrebates has purely random results; at the same time most traders believe that market behavior with nonrandom results can never produce longterm profits should consistent and nonrandom results produce consistent results and random results produce random and inconsistent results? ? Casino owners, experienced gamblers and the most astute traders understand that if you can use probability and have a large enough sample size, then events with random results can produce consistent results, something that is difficult for the average trader to understand The most astute traders treat trading as a numbers game, similar to the way casinos and professional gamblers handle gambling To make it clearer, lets look at seeing the point card play This means that with a large enough sample size (number of bets), the casino will earn a net profit of 4.5 cents for every $1 wagered. The average of 4.5 cents is a combination of all players who leave after a big win (including consecutive wins), all players who lose, and all players in between. At the end of
ForexrebateforExness day, week, month or year, the casino always makes about 4.5% of the total bets. 4.5% may not sound like a lot, but lets look at it another way. This means that each hand is a unique event with a random outcome compared to the previous or next hand. If you pay special attention to each hand, the distribution of winning and losing hands must be random and unpredictable, but overall, the opposite is true if you bet enough times to produce consistent, predictable and statistically reliable results. The reason it is so difficult to think in terms of probabilities is that it requires two apparently conflicting levels of belief. In the first individual level, you must believe that the outcome of each hand is uncertain and unpredictable. Since any variable affecting the consistency of a deck cannot be controlled and cannot be known beforehand, it makes the outcome of any hand compared to another hand uncertain and random or statistically independent. I am referring to the rules of playing blackjack, so even though you do not know or cannot know beforehand (unless you are a psychic who can communicate with gods, spirits, and ghosts) the series of wins to losses, you can be fairly certain that if you play enough times, the person with the advantage will end up winning more and losing less. The level of certainty is a function of the amount of advantage casinos and professional gamblers believe on an individual level that blackjack gambling is unpredictable, while on an overall level they believe that it is predictable and therefore able to gamble effectively and successfully They believe that each hand is unique and therefore do not meaninglessly try to predict the outcome of each hand They learn and fully accept that they do not know what the next hand will be They dont need to know because they can consistently win over time. They dont need to know whats going to happen next, so they dont assign special meaning, emotional or otherwise, to each hand, each turn of the wheel, or each roll of the dice. In other words, they are not hampered by unrealistic expectations, they dont expect whats going to happen next, and they are not invested with pride and dont have to They are therefore more likely to try to pay attention to taking advantage of the probabilities and to execute them perfectly, and thus are relatively less likely to make costly mistakes They are comfortable because they are confident and willing to let the probabilities, that is, their advantage, play itself out; at the same time they know that if the advantage is high enough and the sample size is large enough, they will end up as winners The most astute traders are the same as casinos and professional gamblers First, traders, gamblers and casinos all deal with known and unknown variables that affect the outcome of each trade or gamble. The known variables in gambling are the rules of gambling, and from the individual traders point of view, the known variables in trading are the results of their market analysis Market analysis identifies the collective behavioral patterns of all market participants We know that individuals will do the same thing over and over again in similar situations, resulting in observable behavioral patterns Groups of individuals interacting with each other, day after day, week after week, will also produce behavioral patterns that repeat over and over again Traders can use trend lines, moving averages, oscillating pointers, or Each of these analytical tools uses a set of criteria to identify the boundaries of a behavior pattern, and these criteria and identified boundaries are market variables known to the trader. are known variables that allow the trader to take advantage of the probability of success (advantage) in his favor in any trade, just as the rules of gambling allow the casino to take advantage of the probability of success Second, unknown variables in gambling or trading affect the outcome of each gamble, each trade In blackjack, the unknown variables are the shuffling of the cards and how the gambler decides to play the cards in his hand; in craps, the unknown variables are the roll of the dice; in roulette In roulette, the unknown variable is the amount of power used to spin the wheel. All of these unknown variables affect the outcome of each event, causing each event to be statistically unrelated to the other individual events, thus creating a random distribution of trades between wins and losses. The variables that are unknown when trading are all the traders who may avoid trading the market at any given time, each trade contributes to the market, meaning that each trade made based on the belief that the market is high or low contributes to the collective behavioral pattern exhibited at that time If the market shows a recognizable pattern and the variables used to define that pattern meet the definition of a particular traders edge, then we can say that the market offers traders The opportunity to buy low or sell high according to their own definition Assuming the trader seizes the opportunity to trade to their advantage, what factors will determine whether the market develops in the direction of the traders advantage? The answer is the behavior of other traders! After a trader trades, as long as the part is maintained, other traders will participate in this market and act based on their beliefs about how high or low the price is At any given time, there will be a certain percentage of other traders who will contribute to this traders advantage and a certain percentage of other traders who will offset this traders advantage Everyone does not know in advance how others will behave or how their behavior will affect this traders In fact, the outcome of every legitimate trade that anyone decides to make is more or less influenced by the subsequent behavior of other market participants, making the outcome of all trades uncertain Because the outcome of all trades is uncertain, each trade is like a gamble, and even though a trader may use the same set of known variables to see his or her advantage in each trade, each trade is still statistically unrelated to the next trade, the previous trade, or any future trade; moreover, if the outcome of each trade is statistically independent of all other trades, then even though the probability of success of each trade may be in the traders favor, the profit or loss of any series of trades must be randomly assigned Third, the casino owner does not seek to predict the outcome of each individual Because of the extremely large number of unknown variables in each gambling method, prediction is extremely difficult and does not necessarily produce consistent results The casino owner knows that he or she has many opportunities to play to his or her advantage as long as the sample size of events is large enough to take advantage of the advantage in his or her favor

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